2026 AFC East division preview: Overview, odds and predicted winner

The Buffalo Bills' five-year stranglehold on the AFC East came to an end last year, when the Mike Vrabel-inspired New England Patriots won their first division title since 2019.

Buffalo's answer was to fire Sean McDermott, promote Joe Brady, and bring DJ Moore in to give Josh Allen his first legitimate WR1 for the first time in years.

With the Pats acquiring A.J. Brown, the New York Jets enjoying a strong offseason, and the Miami Dolphins rebuilding from the ground up, the division has been shaken up in a big way.

What were last year's final standings? What's changed? And who wins the division in 2026? Here's our full breakdown, complete with DAZN Bet odds.

2025 AFC East division standings

AFC East 2026 outlook by team

Buffalo Bills

Mike Carlson / Stringer

The Bills finished 12-5 last season, a record that would have been good enough to top five of the other seven divisions. Unfortunately for them, the Patriots were simply better.

McDermott paid for it with his job after a 33-30 overtime loss to Denver in the Divisional round, and Brady stepped up from offensive coordinator to replace him as head coach.

Brady's existing relationship with Allen and his knowledge of the offense bring continuity that no outside candidate could offer.

The bigger question is whether this roster is now good enough, and GM Brandon Beane has worked hard to address the team's needs this offseason.

Wide receiver D.J. Moore is the most important addition, giving Allen the weapon he needs to elevate the passing game.

Moore is coming off a down year by his standards, but reuniting with Brady, his offensive coordinator from their Panthers days, gives him every opportunity to return to his former best.

If Moore lifts the passing game as expected, and with tight end Dalton Kincaid as another dynamic option, Allen could feast.

And if James Cook, last year's NFL rushing leader, looks anything like he did in 2025, the Bills have every chance to regain their division title.

But for that to happen, the defense, now under Jim Leonhard, must improve after allowing 5.1 yards per carry and a league-worst 24 touchdowns on the ground last season.

Whether Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Bradley Chubb, Cole Bishop and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who signed in free agency, can help turn that around could dictate the outcome of the Bills' season.

New England Patriots

Evan Bernstein/Getty Images

The naysayers will point to how the Patriots' 2025 success was, in part, built on playing the easiest schedule since the turn of the millennium.

Others will heap praise on Drake Maye, a frontrunner for the 2025 MVP, who helped turn a 4-13 finish in 2024 into a remarkable 14-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance.

The truth may lie somewhere in between, and it could be settled early, with a season opener and Super Bowl rematch against Seattle, then the Steelers, before back-to-back road games at Jacksonville and Buffalo.

As things stand, the 2026 Patriots' roster looks every bit as talented as last year's.

The worst-kept secret for months, wide receiver A.J. Brown finally landed in New England in June and will be an immediate upgrade over the departed Stefon Diggs.

Romeo Doubs arrived in free agency ahead of Brown, joining Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas to give Maye a much deeper group of receivers than last year.

Hunter Henry returns eager to repeat as a real end zone threat, while Rhamondre Stevenson and second-year man TreVeyon Henderson give Mike Vrabel's unit plenty of punch in the ground game.

The offensive line got reinforcements with the signing of Alijah Vera-Tucker and first-round rookie Caleb Lomu, though how centre Jared Wilson and Will Campbell hold up in year two remains a question worth watching.

Defensively, Vrabel returns a strong core built around Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Carlton Davis III, Robert Spillane, and new veteran safety Kevin Byard.

There are reservations about whether the edge group is any stronger, though, following the departure of K'Lavon Chaisson.

Rookie Gabe Jacas and Dre'Mont Jones have been brought in to help Harold Landry, but on the face of it, they're not quite enough to give New England the immediate talent they need to compete with the NFL's best.

New England will be ultra-competitive. Whether that means 14 wins again is a different question entirely, given what's on their schedule.

Miami Dolphins

As overhauls go, this was as big as any we've seen, with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Minkah Fitzpatrick and head coach Mike McDaniel all gone.

What's arrived in their place is a complete reset, with Jeff Hafley as head coach and Jon-Eric Sullivan as general manager.

Malik Willis signed a three-year, $67.5 million deal as the new starting quarterback, but with only six career starts to his name, the jury is still out.

Hafley's familiarity with him from their time in Green Bay provides some reassurance, but even if Willis plays up to his potential, the weapons around him are dangerously thin.

Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington and Jalen Tolbert are capable complementary pieces but have never been first options, and the rookies brought in via the draft don't move the needle much, for now at least.

The exception, somewhere down the line, could be third-rounder Chris Bell, considered by many to be a first-round talent before tearing his ACL.

And tight end Greg Dulcich, who has yet to put it all together over a full season, has people talking after a strong camp.

Whatever the rest of the cast delivers, there's one genuine star at the heart of it: De'Von Achane. One of the most talented dual-threats in the league, he returns as the focal point of the offense.

Miami selected Kadyn Proctor at left tackle in the first round to help create holes for Achane and protection for Willis, and he joins centre Aaron Brewer to form the core of a promising offensive line.

On defense, Hafley inherits a unit that finished 27th in pass yards allowed per play last season.

Chop Robinson and Josh Uche give the pass rush some life, and linebacker Jordyn Brooks is one of the most productive players at his position league-wide.

Jacob Rodriguez, a second-rounder in the 2026 NFL Draft, was among DAZN's most underrated prospects entering the draft, but as with many rookies, he may take time to find his feet.

Rookie cornerback Chris Johnson addressed a real need, giving a weak secondary someone to genuinely build around going forward.

To suggest 2026 will be a period of adjustment for the Dolphins is an understatement. Five wins may be a tough ask.

New York Jets

Evan Bernstein / Stringer

After a forgettable 3-14 season in 2025, there's genuine enthusiasm going into Aaron Glenn's second year.

David Bailey arrives as a first-round pass rusher with incredible upside, and with Will McDonald and Joseph Ossai in situ, the edge spot should be in decent shape.

At linebacker, Demario Davis adds veteran leadership to a front seven that was leaking badly, combining with Jamien Sherwood to provide Glenn's defense with an above-average pair.

T'Vondre Sweat came over in the Jermaine Johnson trade with Tennessee, giving them an interior presence they badly lacked after shipping Quinnen Williams to Dallas.

And the secondary has also had an injection of talent, with rookie D'Angelo Ponds joining Minkah Fitzpatrick, Nahshon Wright and Andre Cisco, all new to the team.

At quarterback, last year's interception leader, Geno Smith, is a modest upgrade on what was there before, but he has been given plenty to work with.

Garrett Wilson and tailback Breece Hall, so often the only real outlets in the passing game until Adonai Mitchell arrived, have been joined by rookies Omar Cooper and athletic tight end Kenyon Sadiq.

Mason Taylor gives Glenn's unit a second tight end to feature in 12-personnel sets, all the more important given the lack of depth behind the top three wideouts.

The offensive line is in good shape at tackle with Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, even if the interior leaves something to be desired after overspending on Dylan Parham in free agency.

If new offensive coordinator Frank Reich can bring the new pieces together quickly, they could catch a few opponents off guard.

Much like the Dolphins, the Jets are in transition, but they have more building blocks to work with. Talk of going worst to first is premature, but a .500 season is within reach.

2026 AFC East division winner odds

Odds correct as of July 4, 2026. Recommended bets are advised for over-18s.

Our AFC East predicted winner: Bills

DAZN's NFL writer Jason Abbey weighs in

The Bills are the favourites at DAZN Bet, and I believe that's fair, but with the Patriots acquiring Brown, I have it a little closer between the two.

Vrabel's offseason distractions appear to be behind New England, and if Maye continues to ascend in his third year, a game or two and the head-to-heads could separate the two sides.

While it will be a two-horse race at the top, I believe the Jets could outperform their odds if the rookies develop down the stretch and Glenn's side wins close games.

The Dolphins are heading in the right direction, but they're at least a year off from competing, even if Willis turns out to be the answer at quarterback.

For now, Buffalo are my pick, but any repeat of their inability to stop the run in 2026 could hand back-to-back AFC East titles to Vrabel and Co.

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