Mendoza or Moore: who should be the No.1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

As the college football season has hurtled toward its dramatic conclusion, the 2026 NFL draft’s top quarterback debate has crystallised around two supremely talented signal-callers: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore.

With both the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets in the market for franchise quarterbacks and the College Football Playoff semi-final between Indiana and Oregon looming large, the question of who should go No. 1 overall feels less academic and more urgent.

Here, we break down which of these two quarterbacks should hear his name called with the first pick in April.

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The dichotomy between Mendoza’s pro-readiness and Moore’s tantalising upside has drawn inevitable comparisons to the C.J. Stroud–Bryce Young debate that dominated draft discourse a few years ago, and it has NFL executives and scouts agonising over projections, fits and futures.

Fernando Mendoza’s 2025 season has been nothing short of sensational. After transferring from Cal ahead of the campaign, he has torn through defences with efficiency rare for a first-year starter, completing over 72 per cent of his passes for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns against just six interceptions. That performance places him among the nation’s most productive passers – not just in volume but in controlled decision-making and ball security.

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Indiana have been a dominant force, rolling to a perfect regular season and a Rose Bowl rout of Alabama in which Mendoza completed 14 of 16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns. He has also accounted for multiple rushing scores, adding a dual-threat element that elevates his profile.

Mendoza’s leadership and poise have earned him the Heisman Trophy and the attention of NFL evaluators who see a polished pocket passer capable of stepping into an NFL playbook right away. That translates into the belief that he currently offers a higher floor, the kind of prospect who can stabilise a rebuilding franchise needing quarterback play on Day 1.

Across the collegiate landscape, Dante Moore has taken a slightly different path. The Oregon sophomore has only one full season as a starter under his belt, but what he has done with that opportunity demands respect.

Moore has completed nearly 73 per cent of his passes for roughly 3,280 yards, with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions, adding mobility and playmaking ability that NFL teams prize.

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His season includes moments of brilliance – sharp anticipation, tight-window throws and enough flashes to remind scouts of the extraordinary physical tools he possesses. Yet his profile also carries caveats: the relative lack of experience and occasional inconsistency that come with a shorter résumé.

There are even rumblings that Moore could choose to return to college for another year to refine his game and solidify his draft standing, introducing an element of uncertainty into an already fascinating equation.

The head-to-head matchup in the CFP semifinal only adds fuel to this fire. Mendoza and Moore have already met once in the regular season, with Indiana emerging victorious – a result that may sway some evaluators toward Mendoza’s pro readiness.

But Moore’s upside remains undeniable. He possesses the kind of arm talent and improvisational ability that can redefine a franchise’s ceiling. The contrast between their collegiate careers – Mendoza’s comprehensive, efficient mastery and Moore’s high-variance, high-ceiling growth – is the essence of the draft debate.

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Ultimately, who goes No. 1 could hinge more on team need and organisational philosophy than on a clear consensus about talent. A franchise prioritising immediate stability and a seasoned, pro-ready game manager might lean toward Mendoza.

Conversely, one betting on future elite upside, willing to be patient as a young passer evolves, may favour Moore. With the Raiders holding the top pick and the Jets also in the mix for quarterback help, the result could be a draft decision that speaks as much to fit and vision as it does to raw ability.

Whatever unfolds on the field in January’s playoff clash, the Mendoza-Moore debate epitomises the rich, unpredictable allure of college football and the NFL draft alike – a reckoning not just of statistics, but of projection, potential and the alchemy of team building.