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Separating ceiling from reality: Checking in on the top 7 sophomore NFL quarterbacks
The jump from college to NFL starter is brutal. A year in the league tends to separate ceiling from reality and as the 2025 season opens, we can finally start to judge the 2024 draft class properly.
Some have exceeded expectations, some have taken the expected lumps and others have been hit by injuries or circumstance.
Here’s how the top seven quarterbacks from the 2024 draft stack up versus pre-draft billing, measured by what they did as rookies and how they’ve started 2025.
Caleb Williams – hype still outweighing production
The No.1 pick was supposed to be a franchise saviour for the Chicago Bears, but Williams has found NFL accuracy harder to master than anticipated. Analysts have consistently highlighted issues with precision on intermediate throws. Williams had the third-lowest on-target percentage in the league last year among quarterbacks with 10 or more starts and he ranks second in bad throw percentage so far in 2025. His physical tools remain tantalising, yet Williams still looks more like a project than a finished product.
Jayden Daniels – the instant star
Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
No one saw Daniels’ rookie year coming. He carried Washington to the NFC Championship game and looked unflappable doing it. Through two games of 2025, he still looks the part: poised, dynamic and very much a quarterback a team can build around. The question is not whether he belongs, but how high his ceiling goes. One minor caveat is his lack of robustness. A dynamic and willing runner, Daniels’ slender build leaves him susceptible to injury at the harder-hitting pro level. A rib injury cost him playing time as a rookie and knee issue sustained in a loss to the Packers in Week 2 of 2025 could sideline him again.
Drake Maye – finally showing his ceiling
After a rookie season of starts, benchings and growing pains, Maye entered 2025 with doubts to answer. If he underwhelmed in a Week 1 loss to the Raiders, the former UNC Tar Heel got back on track in Week 2 with his most complete performance to date to see off the Miami Dolphins, with three total touchdowns and zero interceptions. Consistency remains the missing piece, but he’s trending upward.
Michael Penix – thrown in early, learning fast
Atlanta’s surprise top-10 pick was expected to sit, but he ended up replacing veteran Kirk Cousins in 2024. Penix’s arm has never been in doubt and in 2025 he’s shown signs of settling into the role. Decision-making under pressure is still raw, but he’s at least validated Atlanta’s gamble.
J.J. McCarthy – talent on ice
NFL
McCarthy lost his rookie year to injury and just when he teased promise with a late Week 1 rally to beat Williams and the Bears, he went down again in Week 2 with a high-ankle sprain. The flashes are enticing, but his performances overall have been erratic, with three interceptions and a completion rate below 60%. Plus, availability is already his defining problem.
Bo Nix – rookie highs, sophomore slump?
@bonix10
Nix shocked everyone by steering Denver to the playoffs in 2024, a rookie season that far outstripped expectations. But his 2025 form has been patchy, including a poor performance in Week 1 in which he coughed up three turnovers during a victory over the Tennessee Titans. Nix’s rookie season has earned him some patience, but the challenge is proving last year wasn’t a one-off.
Spencer Rattler – from fifth-rounder to starter
Few expected Rattler to start NFL games in Year Two, but here he is. He’s displayed the arm talent that once made him a five-star prodigy out of high school, though mistakes remain frequent. As long as the flashes keep coming, New Orleans will persevere.
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