Why a Carabao Cup final appearance could spark Manchester City into life

Arsenal booked their place in this season's Carabao Cup Final on Tuesday night, seeing off Chelsea to reach their first major showpiece in six years. 

Who awaits them next month will be decided tonight, as Manchester City host Newcastle in the competition's other semi-final, with the home side 2-0 up from the first leg at St James' Park.

Pep Guardiola's men look to have one foot already in the final, and if they can secure their place at Wembley, it could just be the boost their season needs as they look to end their trophy drought. 
 

City's stop-start season 

Looking at City's season on paper, it would appear everything's on track. They've qualified for the Champions League last 16, are still in both cup competitions, and although they trail Arsenal in the league by six points, the Gunners are far from out of sight.

Yet, Guardiola's side have been far from convincing this season. Yes, they are a team still in a small transition after a year marked by a high turnover of players, but it's the lack of control this term that has been very un-City-like. 

So far this campaign, City have lost 11 points from winning positions. Had they won those games, they top the league and there would be talk of how many trophies this side can win this season.

Compare that to the leaders, who have only lost five when in that position and Aston Villa just below, who've only lost two, and it shows a weakness the City side has not exhibited previously. 

Those points and control have come in games where, at points, they were cruising, too. 1-0 up at home to Chelsea before a late equaliser, Sunday's first half dominace of Spurs that was pegged back to 2-2, and who could forget the madness of their 5-5 draw with Fulham before Christmas? 

It's not just domestically either. In Europe, they were ahead against Monaco before ending up drawing and showed their fragility by suffering defeats to Bayer Leverkusen and, most surprisingly Bode/Glimt. 

It's that lack of control that has put doubt in the team's ability to win something this season. Michael Regan - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images

Big stars to turn up

If they are to overcome Newcastle and go on to win the League Cup, City will also need more from their big game players, who have shown an unusual level of inconsistency.

Erling Haaland started the season on fire and looked as though he was on another tear towards a record-breaking Golden Boot-winning season. But the goals have dried up. The Norwegian has notched once since the turn of the year and he's not the only one whose performances have deteriorated.

Phil Foden has shown glimpses of his 2024 form, but not often enough, while Jeremy Doku's influence changes from week to week.

While Rayan Cherki took some time to adapt, he has grown into the season, and new signing Antoine Semenyo has shown early signs of being a big player for the Citizens.

What they need now, though, is more of the relentless consistency we've grown accustomed to with City's second halves of a season. 

That winning feeling 

What City need is to prove they are winners again. 2025 marked the first season the club went trophyless since Pep's first campaign in charge, and as a club that has grown used to lifting silverware, they need to rediscover that winning feeling.

The League Cup has always been taken seriously by Guardiola, with four wins in the competition since his arrival in England, and it feels like a fifth could be one of his most important triumphs yet. 

It's a semi-final they are expected to win against a Newcastle side who have only won twice away from home in the league this season and who are looking for a first victory at the Etihad since a League Cup clash in 2014. 

By booking their place at Wembley, it could be just the boost that City need in order to kick on and chase down the Gunners both in the league and ahead of a potential cup final showdown. 

I would be proof that this team is still winners, that they can still be that City machine and are capable of much more than it's shown for most of 2025-26.

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