Newcastle vs Aston Villa: The clash of two teams in a weird tier of their own

This Sunday, third-place Aston Villa will take a trip to St. James' Park to face Eddie Howe's Magpies for a clash between third and eighth. Villa will hope to stay within touching distance of top-spot Arsenal, and Newcastle hope to keep in the hunt for Champions League qualification.

Both these clubs have been revolutionised this decade with Newcastle's Saudi takeover and the appointment of Eddie Howe, who joined two weeks after the takeover.

Aston Villa have become a new club under Unai Emery. The former Arsenal manager made an immediate impact at the club, taking them from 16th to finishing a respectable seventh in his first season. 

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Since both clubs' managerial switch-ups, both received a wealth of financial support. Newcastle have been able to spend approximately £520m in the transfer windows since 2021 and Villa have spent just under £300m under Emery. 

This has resulted in the clubs not only challenging the 'big six' but finishing ahead of them and in European spots consistently for the past few seasons. 

But why does it feel like, despite both teams coming on leaps and bounds, they're in a tier of their own? Not with other high mid-table clubs, but struggling to be considered in that upper echelon of clubs. 

Well, both are just being slightly held back by different reasons or circumstances that means they're struggling to take that last step to being an established and consistent threat to the top teams. 

Newcastle - Fixture overload and lack of squad depth

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This is Newcastle's main issue and it all comes down to when they do qualify for European football, they struggle to manage their fixtures. 

Going back to the 2023/24 season, which was their first time in the Champions League in just over 20 years, and despite being in the group of death, with PSG, AC Milan, and eventual finalists Borussia Dortmund, they threw everything they had at these games. 

Despite finishing fourth in their group, they were eliminated in a somewhat controversial way in the final matchday against PSG.  

However, this affected their domestic form in the first half of the season drastically. From December 7, to the end of 2023, they lost seven out of eight games in all competitions, getting knocked out of the EFL cup and Champions League during this dip in form. 

Whilst making a recovery in the back-end of the season, they finished seventh in the league and missed out on qualifying for any European football.

In contrast, the following season, without the additional games and pressure added by European nights, they finished fifth in the league. Therefore, qualifying for Europe's most prestigious competition and winning their first piece of domestic silverware in 70 years beating Liverpool in the EFL cup final. 

Now this season Newcastle have reverted to a more inconsistent league form. As they sit eighth, three points off Champions League qualification but also only six points off 15th. 

 

However, in the Champions League, they've been performing exceedingly well, following a 3-0 thrashing of Eredivisie leaders PSV they sit seventh, currently in the automatic qualification spots for the last 16. 

However, as two points separate sixth and 16th, it will all come down to the last week, with Newcastle going to Paris to face reigning champions PSG. 

This performance against PSV is a complete contrast to what we saw at weekend, where they held to a point by Wolves who sit 20th and 14 points adrift from safety. They're players can't consistently play to this high standard. 

Players brought in such as Yoane Wissa, who played exceptionally in midweek, have had very slow starts to their Newcastle career as that was only his third goal for the club and their other replacement for Alexander Isak, Nick Woltemade, whilst having an amazing start to the season, has only five goal involvements since the start of December. 

 

They need consistency and they need it fast if they're to secure Champions League for next season and have a deep run in Europe and the domestic cups as they hope to. 

Aston Villa - Selling players at the worst times to fit with PSR and FFP

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Aston Villa at this point in time are looking like one of the only teams that could stop Arsenal from winning the league. However, with Manchester City suddenly greatly underperforming and a 1-0 loss to Everton the The Villans in third, seven points behind the gunners, could be the closest competition. 

Now imagine what position they'd be in if they still had the likes of Jhon Durán, Mousaa Diaby or Donyell Malen. These are all key attacking players for Villa that have been sold at what feels like the worst time possible for the club. 

 

Jhon Durán had a sensational start to the 2024/25 season, scoring three game-winners in the league in September alone. Then going onto net the winner against Bayern Munich in the first home game of their Champions League campaign. 

He had 12 goals in 29 appearances in the first half of the season, mostly from coming off the bench and was catching headlines everywhere. Then in January, he was sold to Al-Nassr for £65m and Villa had now lost one of their best young talents to avoid breaking financial regulations. 

Moussa Diaby was another player let go to the Saudi Pro League, he was sold for £60m in the summer of 2024 after only being bought a year prior. In his one season, he had 21 goal contributions across 54 appearances and was offering Villa a dynamic threat on the left-wing.

Most recently, Donyell Malen has been sold to Roma following a productive first half of the season, registering seven goals and two assists. In response to this, Villa have recalled Leon Bailey from loan, who only managed two goals and four assists in the entirety of last season for them. 

 

Malen was seen as a potential upgrade on Bailey, and it gave the Jamaican time to develop and grow whilst on loan, however, they seem to have gone against all sense and logic and want to put their faith back in the 28-year-old despite an underwhelming time at Villa Park so far. 

These are just examples of moves Villa have made that sometimes they are forced to make because of financial regulations, but the constant merry-go-round of attacking options seems like a fruitless approach, as they don't give these players time to grow and fit Emery's system whether in-form or not. 

Newcastle and Aston Villa - FFP and PSR

It's no secret both these clubs have had major investment over the past few years. However, they haven't been able to keep all these players, or it's gotten to the point of they can only buy if they sell first. 

This is due to the Premier League's regulations, which in simple terms restrict teams from spending unlimited money in a single period of time. 

Whilst this does avoid superteams, it does create the issue of lesser teams who maybe don't have the same income revenue being unable to spend more and try break into the 'Big six' or beyond that and become mainstays in the top five. 

So what about this weekend?

Both clubs will be coming off the back of mid-week European action, and both will be wanting to improve on disappointing results in the league last weekend. 

Newcastle have much more of a chance given it is being played at St James' Park, however, with the likes of Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana have been amongst some of the best in their position in the league this season. 

So, a high-scoring draw could be on the cards as they both hinder their goals of Champions League qualification and stamp out any small hopes Villa had of challenging Arsenal for the title.  


 

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