Why April is Pep Guardiola's month and could spell bad news for Arsenal

The Premier League title race took another twist this past weekend, with Manchester City eating into Arsenal's lead at the top after a round of pivotal results. 

The Gunners' campaign continued to unravel at home to Bournemouth on Saturday, while City picked up the pieces by swatting away Chelsea and cutting the lead to six points, with a game in hand and next week's title blockbuster ahead of them at The Etihad. 

In a season where it looked for so long like the Gunners would end their two-decade wait for a championship, Pep Guardiola's side are closing in and doing so at the ideal time, where history tells us April has become Pep's time. 

April showers 

For those unaware of the stats being bandied about following the win on Sunday night, April is very much Pep Guardiola's favourite time of the year.

Since becoming Manchester City boss in 2016, the Spaniard has lost only three games out of 38 in April, traditionally the time of the run-in towards the end of the season, and that last defeat came five years ago. 

Compare that to Mikel Arteta, who has won just 11 of 25 games in April as Arsenal boss, giving him a win percentage of 44% compared to Guardiola's 79%. 

Perhaps, just as frightening, is that Pep's teams have scored 102 goals in games across said month, more than double that of Arteta's 49. 

It's barefaced stats and proof of the efficiency that City and their manager have shown in his tenure, and they have slipped back into that mould once again as we close in on the final few weeks of the season. 

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Title showdown 

Things don't get better for the North London side next weekend either, as Manchester City's next April fixture sees them hosting the Gunners in what feels like one of the biggest title shootouts in recent memory.

A win for the home side and not only do they close in further on Arsenal, but the mental effect of another title bid imploding before Mikel Arteta's side could turn the tide very much back in Guardiola's favour - even if he remains coy about their chances.

"If they beat us, it's over; if we draw also," said Guardiola ahead of their battle next weekend. 

It's an all too familiar story for Arsenal fans, with the scenario eerily similar to 2022-23, when their team spent a record number of weeks at the top of the table and were five points clear with six games to play.

Yet, City, using their April trump card, usurped the Gunners, and those mental scars remain raw in most supporters' minds, who are fearing a repeat if they lose on Sunday. 

"Manchester City are smelling blood," former Manchester United defender Gary Neville told Sky Sports, and it's hard to argue, given the swagger City went about their business in the second half at Stamford Bridge. 

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Saving grace 

Of course, there is a situation where Arsenal can turn the April tide and banish the demons of previous campaigns, because they are still in the driving seat.

Win for the first time since 2015 at The Etihad - or even pick up a point - means the race is still in their hands if they can find the mentality to get over the line. 

After City, all the Gunners' remaining games come against teams in the bottom half. While City still have to go to Everton and Bournemouth, and host a Champions League-chasing Aston Villa.

If they can buck City's April traditions and show a steel that has been missing since the Carabao Cup defeat, they can still dictate the destination of the Premier League title.

However, it remains in their destiny whether those championship celebrations are in London or Manchester come May.

 

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