Australian Open 2026 dark horses: Who could be the surprise challengers for the Grand Slam title?

The Australian Open main draw starts on Sunday where Jannik Sinner and Madison Keys come into the tournament as defending champions.

While Sinner was the favourite to win last year, and is again this time around to claim get another Grand Slam title in Australia, Keys was a shock victor in 2025.

That had us wondering, could that happen again in either side of the draw. And if so, who are the dark horses to watch out for at The Australian Open 2026.

Dark horses for Australian Open 2026 men's singles 

Daniil Medved

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Calling Daniil Medvedev a 'dark horse' would have been an undersell a few years ago but since then the former Grand Slam winner has been in a slump, winning only one Grand Slam match last season.

We think though that Medvedev could be back with a bang for the Australian Open. This tournament is his most coveted, as the only player in the Open era to lose the Australian Open final after leading by two-sets, twice.

Medvedev, after winning in Brisbane at the start of this year will feel confident for a good showing at the Open. 

Medvedev's upset rating is a 4/5 because of former success on hard-court with a US Open win and two Australian Open finals. A good start to the season and a respectable 7-8, losing record versus favourite, Sinner. 

His less respectable 2-6 match up against World Number 1, Carlos Alcaraz, does not help his chances, however. 

Alexander Bublik

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Alexander Bublik has already achieved everything he wanted for this year, saying: ''The only goal for this season was to achieve Top 10 and in the first week I have won a title and I am into the Top 10.''

We think he could do more with a deep run in the Australian Open. 

The player reached the Top 10 for the first time at the start of this season but also shone last season, winning four ATP titles, only less than World Number 1, Carlos Alcaraz. 

The Kazakhstani man managed his furthest placement in a Grand Slam last year, after defeating British Number 1, Jack Draper, to reach the quarter-finals.

Bublik went out after losing to Sinner but has since beaten the Italian, in Sinner's worst loss by ranking since August 2023, the player who beat him then, also Bublik. 

The Italian recognises Alexander Bublik's skill, saying: ''Bublik is one of the most naturally gifted guys on tour.''

Despite the World Number 10's regular disappointment at Grand Slams, namely when he crashed out of the first round of Wimbledon after winning Halle just before, last season.

I think he can go far, with his improved consistency, strong and ability to beat Jannik Sinner, which is something you need to win the Australian Open, I give him a 3/5 upset rating. 

Although, he will still not be a favourite against the Italian, losing 6-1,6-1,6-1, in the US Open.

Australian Open 2026: Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton has been labelled as a potential winner of the competition by former British number one Greg Rusedski.

The American has not got past the quarter-final stage at the tournament before but his big serve and forehand suits the hard-court game.

Rusedski said, ‘’His dad won two ATP Tour titles. He has a lot of knowledge. Can he correct those little holes in his game because he has a lot of tools.’’

The most notable ‘little hole’ in Shelton’s game is his much-criticised backhand and his movement. 

Hard-court is fast which allows his serve to devastate but it is not as fast as grass. So, the issues with his game will be too exploitable and I do not believe him and his father will have enough time to fix these prior to the tournament. 

The American particularly struggles against, tournament favourite, Jannik Sinner with a 7-1 head-to-head record and to win the Australian open you will be likely to play against the Italian. 

Ben Shelton's upset rating is a 2/5, because although, a late stage showing is likely, I doubt he would be able to beat either of the top two seeds to win the whole thing.

Australian Open 2026: Stan Wawrinka

Stan the man announced this season would be the final or his career but has ensured it will not just be a farewell tour, saying: ‘’I’m a competitor, I want to push myself to the limit.’’ He even made mention of plans to get back into the Top 100.

Wawrinka has started the season as he means to go on, beating world number 26, Arthur Rinderknech, at the United cup. Showing age is just a number with a decade between the two, with Stan turning 41 this March.

The three-time Grand Slam winner has also been given a chance at the Australian Open, where he won his first grand slam in 2014 after, being handed a wildcard.

Stan Wawrinka: ‘’To have the chance to play in the Australian Open at the beginning of my final year on tour, means the world to me.’’ 

Wawrinka has proved he can still cut it at the highest level of the game and will be desperate to prove himself at a Grand Slam for maybe the last time in his career. His experience, signature devastating onehanded-backhand and the crowd being behind him at every point, will make the Swiss player a tough opponent for anyone. 

Stan Wawrinka's upset rating is a 1/5. 

Considering Stan's age and his last Grand Slam win coming a decade ago, in the US Open in 2016, I don't think we will see him go far in the tournament although, every fan would love it. 

Dark horses for Australian Open 2026 women's singles

Australian Open 2026: Belinda Bencic

Sticking with the Swiss, Belinda Bencic has started the season in form and was crowned MVP even though Switzerland lost to Poland in the United Cup held in Perth and Sydney.

The Swiss number 1 put up an impressive 9-1 record in the tournament and even beat two Top 10 players, including world number 2, Iga Swiatek.

The Swiss player entering the Top 10 means she is the first player to do so after giving birth since the greatest women's player ever Serena Williams.

The Olympic Gold medallist has all the tools to win the whole competition with recent victories against some of the best players in the world on hard-court, she gets a 4/5 upset rating.

her 2023 Australian Open loss to Aryna Sabalenka, does not stack up favourably for the player a she will likely have to face the World Number 1 to win the tournament but has a respectable 2-1 losing record against the Belarusian. 

Australian Open 2026: Mirra Andreeva 

Mirra Andreeva at only 18-years-old made it to the quarter-final at the Australian Open last time around.

Taking the great Aryna Sabalenka to knock her out. However, she has already beaten Sabalenka on hard-court at a major tournament at Indian Wells since.

This gives her a good chance in the tournament and to continue her rapid progress.

Andreeva's upset rating is a 2/5 although going far in the tournament will not be a shock, I think her inexperience and tough competition makes winning it unlikely. 

I think Belinda Bencic and Daniil Medvedev both have big chances to go far in the Australian Open however will struggle to snatch the tournament from favourites Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka.