Caleb Williams 2026 outlook: Can the Bears' 'Iceman' QB win MVP?

Raise your hand if you genuinely thought that after the misery of his 2024 season, we'd be talking about Caleb Williams as a Madden cover athlete and an MVP candidate in 2026.

A lot changed in his second year with the Chicago Bears.

With new head coach Ben Johnson in his corner, Williams guided the Bears to an 11-6 record, delivered their first NFC North title since 2018, and led the league with six fourth-quarter comebacks.

Now, heading into 2026, having spent a full year learning Johnson's scheme, Williams' goals are as lofty as they come.

"I really want to become the greatest offense this year," he told Maxx Crosby on The Rush Podcast, and to be clear, he's talking all-time.

But does he have what it takes to achieve that feat, and can he really become the 2026 league MVP as some have suggested?

Here, I evaluate how Williams played in 2025 and what his 2026 outlook could bring.

How did Caleb Williams perform in 2025?

First, the bad

The arrival of Johnson and a rebuilt offensive line fixed the sack problem that dogged the 2024 Bears' offense almost immediately.

What didn't improve, and this is the pretty big caveat that sometimes gets lost in all the positivity of his year-two narrative, was his accuracy.

Despite an elite play-caller and an excellent offensive line, Williams ranked third-worst in the league with a 23.7% inaccurate throw rate, per PFF.

That mark was marginally worse than in his rookie year, suggesting the accuracy issue is his to fix rather than a function of his surroundings.

The good

Williams' 3,942 passing yards ranked seventh, his 27 passing touchdowns sixth, and he also added 388 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

While those numbers are excellent, what really defined his year was leading the league with six fourth-quarter comebacks, earning him the 'Iceman' moniker.

It helped, of course, that he enjoyed excellent protection after struggling mightily in that area the year before.

After being sacked a league-worst 68 times in his rookie year, Williams finished 2025 with the third-best sack rate in the NFL, a transformation that reflects both the improved protection and his own growth in getting through reads faster.

His regular-season performances against the Cowboys, Bengals, Steelers, Browns and 49ers were impressive, and while the interceptions piled up in the postseason, his knack for clutch plays continued.

Proving once again that he has nerves of steel, Williams inspired an improbable comeback win against the Packers in the Wild Card round, finding DJ Moore with minutes remaining to help Chicago overturn an 18-point deficit.

Williams also came within a whisker of defeating the Rams in the Divisional round with a late-game heave as incredible as it was improbable.

Caleb Williams' 2026 season outlook

Burden, Loveland, Odunze and the weapons

D.J. Moore is gone, traded to the Bills in a move that Johnson said left even him feeling "a little emotional."

That departure creates an opening for Luther Burden to serve as the lead weapon, which feels less daunting than it might have given how impressively he finished 2025.

"What I've grown to love about him is this guy loves football," Johnson said of Burden at the NFL owners' meetings in Phoenix.

Colston Loveland, the 10th overall pick in 2025, produced 713 yards, 58 catches and six touchdowns as a rookie, ranking 13th among all tight ends in receiving yards and tied for eighth in touchdowns.

From Week 7 onwards, Loveland emerged as a true difference-maker, and if Johnson's assertion that "Colston's made a big jump" is anything to go by, he should be a top-five tight end in 2026.

Rome Odunze is a year older and more comfortable in the system, and while there are some concerns about his lingering foot injury, reports suggest he "feels great."

At running back, D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai return eager to pick up where they left off as a two-headed monster in the backfield.

The offensive line in 2026

Joe Thuney returns after winning the NFL's inaugural Protector of the Year award, not giving up a single sack all season, and adding All-Pro and Pro Bowl honours.

Michael Reaves / Staff

On the right side, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright transformed what had been a liability into one of the better units in the league.

If there's any real uncertainty, it's at centre and left tackle.

Drew Dalman's sudden retirement opened a hole at centre that the Bears addressed by trading for veteran Garrett Bradbury and drafting Logan Jones in the second round.

Bradbury has taken all the first-team snaps through OTAs and minicamp, though Jones is talented enough that the competition could get interesting if Bradbury struggles.

At left tackle, Ozzy Trapilo is recovering from a torn patellar tendon, and it seems Braxton Jones is the front-runner to start over Kiran Amegadjie, at least to start the year.

New Bears offensive coordinator

Press Taylor, who spent 2025 as passing game coordinator, stepped up when Declan Doyle left for Baltimore in February.

Cole Kmet's read on the transition was encouraging.

"Him and Declan were always side by side," he said. "He's very detailed. He brings a lot of energy as a young guy, understands what the foundations of the offense are."

Johnson put it more bluntly: "He's the most organised coach I've ever been around at this level. He's got libraries of plays."

For Williams and the rest of the offense, that continuity is key. They're not learning a new system, they're getting better within one they already know.

So, can Caleb Williams win the 2026 MVP?

Williams' goal of eclipsing the 2013 Denver Broncos, who averaged 37.9 points per game in Peyton Manning's record-setting 55-touchdown season, is bold to say the least.

But if you listen to Devin Hester, the Bears' legendary Hall of Fame returner, Williams might just have what it takes to come close.

"The passes he makes are just amazing," he told DAZN in a recent interview. "That's what the Bears have been looking for the past couple of years."

Surpassing those records is extremely unlikely, but with Johnson, Burden, Odunze, Loveland, Swift, Monangai, it's not beyond the pale to imagine that Williams could be in with a shout of succeeding Matthew Stafford as this year's MVP.

Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

But there are also plenty of reasons he might not. Can Burden pick up where he left off and keep it going for a whole season? Will the drop-off from Dalman and Trapilo affect Williams' protection?

And even if neither of those becomes a problem, can Williams become more accurate and consistent?

Fix those issues, and the MVP argument, already building, becomes much stronger.