Key NFL Wild Card matchups: Caleb Williams' efficiency vs. Packers, Maye's accuracy vs. Chargers, and more

The NFL playoffs are here, with the stakes rising on every snap, decision, and adjustment made on the field.

An effective game plan is key to reaching the next round, and each player must win their matchup to keep their team’s Super Bowl hopes alive.

DAZN News’ Gavin Babbitt breaks down the top matchups of Wild Card Weekend, all of which will be live on DAZN with a Game Pass subscription.

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Efficiency from Caleb Williams and backfield duo key for the Bears

The Bears and the Packers split their season series this year after two close games. They meet for the third time in the Wild Card round. 

D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai split carries in the Chicago backfield. Ben Johnson ran them to opposite sides against Green Bay this season. Swift is used primarily on the right side – 10 of his 12 carries in the second meeting against the Packers went that direction.

Linebackers Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper are both excellent run-stoppers. Green Bay will shade them to the right, forcing Swift elsewhere. Limiting those attempts will leave Chicago with more yardage to gain on second and third down. 

Ben Johnson can send Kyle Monangai up the middle to counter. Monangai averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the Week 16 victory over the Packers. Over four yards on those runs came after contact. Monangai can keep the Bears ahead of the sticks by taking on Green Bay defensive tackles Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks, who are less consistent against the run. 

Caleb Williams was sixth in touchdowns (27), but finished 26th in completion percentage (58.1%) among quarterbacks this season. Ideally, the Packers will force Williams to throw as much as possible while defending the deep ball. 

Tight end Colston Loveland is an X-factor for the Bears. Loveland was 10th at tight end in first downs (35) this season, but had only 59 total yards against the Packers. He has a good matchup against Quay Walker in the middle of the Green Bay defense.

Half of Williams’ touchdowns were thrown from outside the red zone. Green Bay safeties Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams are excellent at curbing big plays. The trio allowed three touchdowns on over 1,600 coverage snaps this season. None of them allowed more than 11 yards per reception. 

Plays downfield will be few and far between for the Bears. If Chicago hits a deep ball, Luther Burden is likely the recipient. The rookie receiver has an excellent connection with Williams over the top. 

The Packers must shut down the Bears’ running game. Chicago finished third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.5). The run will set up play-action, where Williams is great at converting first downs and throwing downfield. 

Green Bay’s pass rush is active throughout games, but has a low sack rate. If Williams stays poised in the pocket, his completion rate will come up. Along with the running game, this gives the Bears more time of possession. This is a considerable advantage in a game that is expected to be played in poor weather.

Patriots must take advantage of the Chargers’ front seven 

The Patriots rode their passing game to the AFC’s No. 2 seed. They face the Chargers on Wild Card weekend, who bring a balanced defense from Los Angeles into the frigid New England weather.  

In his second NFL season, Drake Maye was arguably the NFL’s most efficient quarterback. Maye led the league in completion rate (72.0%) and averaged nearly nine yards per attempt. He must be accurate this week. The Chargers use extra players in coverage by combining a low blitz rate (20.4%) with a light box.

Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley is a good target for Maye this week. Henley allowed an 80% catch rate and nearly 400 yards after the catch this season. Using Stefon Diggs on slant routes will put him in Henley’s zone. 

Patriots tight end Hunter Henry plays over 40% of his snaps from the slot. The Chargers will use safety Derwin James to cover him from that alignment. James must make plays on the ball with Henry’s contested-catch ability. Combining pass breakups and tackling will help James remove Henry from this game, allowing the Bolts’ secondary to help on Patriots’ deep threats Kayshoun Boutte and Demario Douglas. 

Production from Rhamondre Stevenson in the middle of the field can swing this matchup. Stevenson will have room to operate with fewer players in the box. It is a tall order as the Chargers have stopped the run efficiently with that scheme this year. 

Using Stevenson effectively will help the New England passing game and unlock TreVeyon Henderson’s speed on the outside. If the Patriots execute this plan well, they will have enough opportunities in the red zone to win this game.

The 49ers like to throw, but need the run against the Eagles

The 49ers and Eagles meet this week for the first time since the 2023 NFC Championship – a 31-7 victory for Philadelphia. 

Nearly 70% of the 49ers’ yardage came through the air this season. Nonetheless, the Eagles’ defense is more vulnerable against the run. The San Francisco running game is likely to go to the middle and to the right this week. 

This steers Christian McCaffrey away from Jordan Davis, the Eagles’ top run-stopper, and sends the running back Jalen Carter and Moro Ojomo's way. Carter and Ojomo have missed tackles this year, with Carter battling injuries throughout.

If Christian McCaffrey can elude edge rusher Jealen Phillips on the right side, he can get to the second level in this game. The Eagles were among the top 10 teams in allowing explosive runs (55) and rushing touchdowns (20) this season. 

George Kittle and McCaffrey are San Francisco’s best pass catchers. McCaffrey finished 12th in the NFL in targets – impressive for a running back. McCaffrey runs routes in the middle of the field where he will see plenty of linebackers Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell.

Baun is a good answer for McCaffrey. He allowed the lowest reception rate (60.0%) among all NFL linebackers this season in zone coverage. Campbell is the better target for Purdy on McCaffrey's routes. The rookie covers the left side at shallow depth.

Purdy has thrown four touchdowns with a passer rating of 136.6 toward McCaffrey in the area occupied by Campbell. Those plays will help against a fast Eagles pass rush that consistently brings pressure. 

George Kittle is great against zone coverage running routes from the offensive line. When Cooper DeJean and Jihaad Campbell play the same side, Kittle will have the best chance to make plays. DeJean and Campbell are the most prone to allowing yards after the catch on the Philadelphia defense. Kittle was a top-20 tight end in the category, despite playing in only 11 games this season. 

If the 49ers move the chains with the run, they will loosen up the Philadelphia coverage in the red zone. The 49ers are efficient on third down and inside the 20. If they are not themselves in that regard, their chances in this game drop considerably.