Expert Opinion: Who will conquer the WRC’s toughest rally?

Since Safari Rally Kenya rejoined the World Rally Championship nobody has been able to stop Toyota from dominating what is regarded as one of motorsport’s toughest events.

The Japanese brand has won every edition since 2021, outlining its superiority by recording a 1-2-3-4 finish in 2022 and 2023. However, only Kalle Rovanpera and Toyota’s now part-time driver Sebastien Ogier, who will be absent this weekend, have taken the victories.

Such has been Toyota’s dominance on Kenya’s car-breaking roads, rivals Hyundai and M-Sport-Ford have fought over scraps. The teams’ best results have been third place finishes, the former claimed by Ott Tanak in 2021, while Hyundai’s new signing Adrien Fourmaux earned a podium for Ford last year.

To find out if Toyota will continue its dominance or will Kenya’s harsh terrain issue a surprise, DAZN News spoke to legendary WRC television commentator Becs Williams for an expert opinion on the form book.

Toyota event favourites but Kenya can deliver a surprise

WRC

“I think this is the rally that can deliver a surprise result for drivers who maybe ordinarily wouldn’t be capable of a podium when it is a flat out assault like on other events. The Safari Rally is not a rally where you can be flat out, you have to have a strategy in place because this rally can throw so much at you. The terrain is constantly changing and the weather is constantly changing. Out of all the rallies adaptability is the biggest skill for Safari. This is what Toyota have done brilliantly over the past few years. They have had drivers that have understood the objective.

“Even though the rally is shorter than was compared to the marathon of the past it still packs a punch. It is hard to look past the Toyota team because they have had such success over the past few years. They seem to be on fantastic form.”

Will Elfyn Evans’ sparkling form continue?

WRC

“As championship leader Elfyn is going to be first on the road, so that is going to be tough as he will be discovering the conditions first and adapting to those. He did that job in Sweden and sometimes it was a benefit to be first on the road in Sweden given the conditions, that might not be the case this weekend.

“He doesn’t have to worry about being the driver on the top step of the podium there because he has built such an advantage (30-point lead over) his nearest championship rival (Toyota team-mate Kalle Rovanpera), so he does have to worry about pulling in the big points. That could give him that extra breathing space and he can go at the pace he wants too, he can judge it.”

Can Takamoto Katsuta claim a maiden WRC win?

WRC

“I really hope so. There was a lot of people hoping that Taka would actually take that win in Sweden last month. Taka shone in Sweden finishing second behind Evans. A lot of people were concerned about him last year when things were going wrong but it always changes. He showed fantastic pace in Sweden and his mindset seems to be there. He is confident and calm and knows when he needs to rein it in now, whereas last year he didn’t. This could be the rally where Taka takes the top step, but again we are faced with such an array of drivers that could win. He knows how to handle the Safari Rally having finished second there twice (2021, 2024) and I think that is the key to it, understanding the rally itself.”

Expect a fightback from two-time Safari winner Kalle Rovanpera

Toyota Gazoo Racing World Rally Team

“I think we need to see the fightback coming from title favourite Kalle and he needs to see it for his own mindset. If Kalle can walk away with a good result here it will do him obviously well for the rest of the rallies. It is again about adaptability and he is the one that has not adapted to the new tyres so well so far this season, and he has been pretty vocal on that.

“The mutterings from testing seem to be far more positive, which is good. I think for him he does need to walk away from Safari with a good result because if Elfyn does, then he is starting to romp away into the distance with a big lead in the championship Not than abyboe is so uncatchable this early in the season, Rovanpera can’t let that gap grow much bigger than it is.”

Will Hyundai finally crack the Safari Rally?

WRC

“Hyundai need to get bit of running jump on things in terms of the way things are standing right now. World champion Thierry Neuville is their highest placed driver in the overall classification but he is on 29 points in comparison to Elfyn’s 61, which is a huge gap. Neuville’s luck in Safari has been very up and down over the years and it is fair to say for the team it has not been the stand out event for them in any way shape or form, it has been Toyota that has dominated but they can change things round.

“They are using a car without the 2025 upgrades, but hopefully they can make that change. They have very capable drivers in Neuville, Tanak and Fourmaux and all the learning and resources from Kenya over the years, hopefully it will deliver them a good result. They do need it in terms of the drivers’s and manufacturers’ championship. We might only be heading into the third round, but you don’t want that gap at the top starting to widen.

Can M-Sport-Ford sneak a podium?

WRC

“I think they could. When I spoke to team principal Rich Millener at the start of the year we talked about the hopes for Gregoire Munster. It could be events that require a lot of thought process as well as momentum where he could shine, and he pinpointed Safari as a potential for Gregoire to maybe get onto the podium or get very close to it. The mindset factor is so important to have that absolute belief and confidence in yourself. I see Greg have this confidence moving forward.

“For Josh McErlean it is so hard to say what is possible. We talked about Monte Carlo being a baptism of fire for him but I think this weekend will be a real baptism of fire. There is the potential that if things go wrong he will have to fix a car by the roadside and that is another element of their job. But he has probably been one of the surprises of the year so far, I don’t think we expected to see the pace we saw from him in Sweden.”

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