Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford: Is this a 50-50 fight?

As of Friday morning before the fight, Canelo Alvarez is still installed as the favorite with oddsmakers giving the undisputed super middleweight world champion the benefit of the doubt over an undefeated Terence Crawford who is moving up two weight classes to clash with the Mexican sensation at 168 pounds.

But is this mega fight a true 50-50 bout? And should it be?

Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) is a four-division world champion ranging from junior middleweight to middleweight, super middleweight and light heavyweight.

At super middleweight, Alvarez is 11-0, having produced four of those wins by knockout. Of the seven unanimous decisions he has notched in the division, Alvarez registered a knockdown in four of those bouts.

Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) has etched his undefeated ledger having notched world titles at lightweight, super lightweight, welterweight and junior middleweight. That includes back-to-back undisputed crowns at 140 and 147 pounds.

For what it’s worth, Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence was built up as a perceived 50-50 fight only for ‘Bud’ to demonstrate his sweet science brilliance in delivering an absolute beatdown resulting in a rousing ninth-round TKO victory in July 2023.

So is the Canelo vs. Crawford super fight more of a true 50-50 bout?

Yes.

Regardless of how the oddsmakers have it, Alvarez imposing his will and making Crawford feel power that he has never felt before should not come as a surprise to anyone — whether he does it by knockout or getting the nod on judges’ scorecards.

Similarly, Crawford exhibiting a perfect fight plan and using his more nimble feet to work in and out of the pocket to box Alvarez’ ears off should not come as a surprise to anyone either. Producing his best boxing masterclass yet could very well come as a points victory.

Al Bello/Getty Images for Netflix

What would be surprising though is if Crawford, who is moving up 14 additional pounds, finds a way to stop Alvarez. A $100 down on Crawford knocking Alvarez out could net you nearly $900 with many oddsmakers, showing how shocking that would be. Consider this as well: Prior to producing a unanimous decision over Israil Madrimov at 154 pounds last summer, Crawford had an 11-fight knockout streak.

He might have even more punching power at 168 pounds and defeating Alvarez via knockout would give Crawford something that Floyd Mayweather Jr. nor Dmitry Bivol were able to do against the Mexican face of boxing.

Both Canelo and Crawford are synonymous with greatness, having already produced future lock Hall of Fame resumes.

It is why they are this generation’s best. It is why they are vying to see who reigns supreme for this era.

This is more of a 50-50 fight than many think. 

It is why each man has shown the other respect all the way through this promotion.

That will change shortly, though.

For whoever has his hand raised Saturday night in Vegas is going to move himself into rarer air at the stiff expense of the other.

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