Iran's current situation at the 2026 World Cup: 100 days out from kickoff

With the World Cup starting in 100 days , Iran's participation in the competition is up in the air amid conflict in the Middle East, after co-hosts the United States and Israel launched air strikes into the country over the weekend.

What could this mean for Iran's participation? Who would be the beneficiaries of their withdrawal, and what problems would America, Canada, and Mexico face in hosting this World Cup?

DAZN news takes a deeper dive into what this conflict could mean for the countries involved.

 

Is Iran going to play at the World Cup?

Iran is set to play their opening World Cup match in Los Angeles against New Zealand on June 16, before playing Belgium five days later in the same stadium and rounding off their group stage against Egypt in Seattle.

The U.S. and Israel have targeted Iran in coordinated attacks since Saturday that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens more senior officials.

Iran's soccer chief, Mehdi Taj, claimed that, "It's not possible to say exactly, but there will certainly be a response."

"This will surely be studied by the country's high-ranking sports officials, and there will be a decision on what's going to happen.

"But what we can say now is that due to this attack and its viciousness, it is far from our expectations that we can look at the World Cup with hope."

Currently, it is unclear if Iran will refuse to send a squad to America, Canada, and Mexico, or even if the USA federation could ban the team from competing. JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

Who will replace Iran?

As it stands, Iraq are favourites to take Iran's place after missing out on qualification, whereas Iran qualified via a continental play-off, but the United Arab Emirates are also in the running.

If Iran decided not to travel to North America, it would be the first time a side had not travelled to a World Cup since France and India didn't take part in 1950 due to travel costs.

FIFA's World Cup regulations state that they have the choice to remove a team from a tournament or make a change if a team withdraws.

Since the UAE lost a playoff against Iraq, that meant they have to go through an extra round against Bolivia or Suriname on March 31.

If Iraq were unable to qualify, they would be first in line to take Iran's place, but if they do, it may default to the UAE, as they are the highest-ranked side from Asia who haven't already qualified.

FIFA's secretary general, Mattias Graffstrom, said on Saturday that “our focus is to have a safe World Cup with everybody participating.”

Since his quotes, FIFA hasn't commented further, and as it stands, the World Cup will go ahead as planned.

What has and will be done?

Currently, the US government has banned Iranian citizens from entering the country, with exceptions for national team members and staff, but Mehdi Taj was barred from attending the draw in Washington in December.

If Iran were to withdraw from the World Cup, it would also be banned from World Cup qualification for the 2030 edition.

There could be huge repercussions for the Iranian federation: they could have to pay at least $10.5 million if they pull out, as well as disciplinary fines for withdrawing after a certain date.

At least $321,000 would be paid if it's within the last three days before the tournament, or $642,000 if they withdraw in the last month before kickoff. Hector Vivas - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Image

Existing Problems

Whilst Iran's withdrawal from the World Cup could be seen as a massive problem, there are still some issues that FIFA and the US government will have to iron out before the tournament gets underway on June 11.

If Iran were to play, there would be a lot of scrutiny on their training ground in Arizona and on their matches regarding fan safety.

During their second match against Wales in the 2022 edition, there were confrontations between fans over Iran's government, and something similar could happen again as Iran plays their opening two matches in LA, which has a large Iranian community.

Security will most likely be heightened for teams and fans entering the country due to recent conflicts and concerns about the use of ICE across the US and neighbouring Mexico.

Several Porto fans were blocked from flying to support their team at last summer’s Club World Cup, while travel into the US from Iran, Egypt, Ivory Coast, and Senegal has been significantly curtailed by Government action.

The situation surrounding Iran only heightens the already tense and complicated landscape of this World Cup, and could become even more challenging.

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