NFL Divisional Round playoffs: Can the Patriots overcome the Texans defensive juggernaut?

It’s fair to say that before the season started, few expected the New England Patriots to achieve what they have so far.

But as we prepare to watch Mike Vrabel’s Patriots face the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, New England’s résumé reads like that of a team that belongs. They are the AFC’s No. 2 seed, share the best record in the league at 14–3, and second-year quarterback Drake Maye is leading the charge for MVP honours.

Here, we break down the biggest challenge now standing in the way of New England’s fairytale season: the stellar Texans’ defense.

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What began as a cagey affair in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Chargers ended in a comfortable 16 - 3 win on the heels of a dominant defensive display.

Now, the Patriots look forward to their first Divisional Round game since the 2018/19 season, but standing in their way are the red-hot Houston Texans.

Houston’s defense, so often the driving force behind their impressive 10-game winning streak, excelled once again in their 30-6 Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, bailing out an offense that scored only 17 points on the night. The remaining points were scored by the Texans' defense.

Sheldon Rankins returned a fumble for a touchdown following a Will Anderson sack.

And safety Calen Bullock added the rest, courtesy of a pick-six.

Houston's defensive line, boasting arguably the best edge duo in the league in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, piled the pressure on Steelers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers, sacking the four-time MVP four times.

Is the Patriots' offensive line a concern?

Minor flaws in the Patriots' offensive line were exposed by the Chargers last weekend. Maye was sacked five times, with 12 of the Bolts' 19 pressures produced by edge rushers.

Granted, the Chargers do have one of the best defenses when it comes to sacks, ranking 7th with 45, but Hunter and Anderson are far more disruptive than anything Los Angeles has to offer.

Whilst rookie offensive tackle Will Campbell has enjoyed a strong season, he and the Patriots surrendered 48 sacks in the regular season, ranking just inside the top 10 worst teams in that category, and 39.4% of those pressures were allowed by Maye's offensive tackles.

It should, however, be noted that the performance was something of an anomaly for Campbell, who allowed only 26 pressures on 476 snaps in pass protection, compared to Vederian Lowe, who allowed 15 in only 176 while standing in as Campbell's injury replacement.

Just how dangerous are Hunter and Anderson?

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Houston's defense is much changed from when Vrabel ran it from 2017-18, but the Patriots' head coach will know exactly what kind of beast awaits his side on Sunday.

There's no question about it, Hunter and Anderson have what it takes to inspire the Texans to victory, and on the evidence last weekend, there are no signs of them slowing under the intense pressure of playoff football.

The pair, who ranked third and eighth for most regular-season sacks, now stand as perhaps the biggest obstacle to the Patriots' hopes of progressing to the Championship Round.

Throughout the regular season, the only Houston wins in which neither Hunter nor Anderson recorded a sack were Weeks 13 and 14 vs. the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs.

In said wins, Daniel Jones and Patrick Mahomes were sacked by other players on Houston's defense, and both teams were held to 16 and 10 points respectively, proving that this Texans defence is not just a two-man wrecking crew. 

And while Hunter and Anderson take most of the credit, Houston has talent at all three levels of defense, ranking second-best in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks.

In addition to this, the Texans boast the sixth-best passing defense, fourth-best run defense, and tie for the third-most interceptions with 19. 

So, even if the Patriots manage to hold Hunter and Anderson at bay, there is so much more to this Texans D to worry about than just the two Pro-Bowl edge rushers.

The Texans' secondary in particular is a terrifying sight for quarterbacks, with All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre leading the way. Pitre's partner at safety, Calen Bullock, couldn't believe his teammate didn't earn an All-Pro nod.

What to expect from Maye and the Patriots O line.

As good as Maye has been this season, he will need protection from the offensive line if they are to have a chance at putting up serious points on Houston's defense.

The burden of responsibility to keep him clean will largely fall upon the shoulders of rookie Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses, who must be at the top of their game on Sunday.

Can they do enough to give the Patriots a chance? Sure, especially when we consider that Maye and Co. simply need to outscore the underwhelming C.J. Stroud-led offense.

Famous last words? Only time will tell.