Are the Buffalo Bills being overlooked as genuine Super Bowl contenders? Can they win it all?

The Buffalo Bills have an elite quarterback in reigning MVP Josh Allen, boast the league’s leading rusher in James Cook, and have just booked their place in the Divisional Round after dispatching one of the hottest teams in football.

So why do some still consider them outsiders to win Super Bowl LX? More specifically, can the Bills lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy in February?

DAZN News' Leo Wood answers those questions here.

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On Wild Card Weekend, Allen and head coach Sean McDermott led the Buffalo Bills into EverBank Stadium to take on the number three AFC seed Jacksonville Jaguars.

Going into the game, the Jaguars were riding an impressive eight-game win streak, including a 34-20 win against the eventual No.1 AFC first seed, the Denver Broncos, and a 35-6 drubbing of the playoff-bound Los Angeles Chargers.

Over that period, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was on a tear, throwing for 19 touchdowns and only five interceptions.

With a borderline elite offense - including the likes of tailback Travis Etienne Jr., wideouts Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. - and the best run defense in the league, the Jaguars looked like a serious challenge.

But following a chaotic fourth quarter, which tied the record for the most lead changes in playoff history, the Bills left Jacksonville victorious, winning 27-24 after Cole Bishop intercepted a pass to end the game.

This was, perhaps surprisingly, the first-ever road playoff win for both Allen and McDermott despite making the postseason for seven consecutive seasons.

2025-2026: The season of chaos and change

This season has seen giants fall and young guns rise, with only four of the playoff quarterbacks not drafted in this decade. With no Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow in the postseason, surely this should be the year the Bills are favourites at least for the AFC?

All of the AFC teams with ten wins or more have a quarterback drafted this decade, apart from one. Whether it's the Denver Broncos with Bo Nix, the Houston Texans with CJ Stroud or the New England Patriots with Drake Maye, this season has ushered in a youth movement.

Allen is the exception. He may not have replicated his impressive 2024 numbers, record-wise or statistically, and getting knocked off the top spot in the AFC East for the first time since 2019 must have stung, but he deserves credit for hanging with the ascending talents - such as Maye - the favourite to dethrone him as the MVP.

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The rise of Maye and the Patriots has, to some extent, undermined what the Bills have achieved in the AFC. It also hurts that the Bills have been knocked off the top spot in the AFC East for the first time since 2019. However, Buffalo's 12-5 record doesn't tell the whole story.

Several of their scorelines in their losses to strong teams have been close, including a one-point loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles, a four-point loss to the Houston Texans and a three-point loss to the Patriots.

The other two losses to Atlanta and Miami were very much off days, but aside from that, when they've lost to the big teams, the margins of defeat have been narrow.

Injuries, injuries and more injuries

The Bills currently have 13 players on injured reserve, and now wide receiver Gabe Davis has been ruled out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card game against the Jaguars. 

With Joshua Palmer and Curtis Samuel already out, this leaves Buffalo with an extremely thin receiving core heading into Denver. 

(Getty Images)

The list of ailments doesn't stop there. Jordan Poyer has been ruled out for the Divisional round against the Broncos, meaning rookie Jordan Hancock may be expected to start in his place.

This might cause concern amongst Bills' fans, as despite having the best pass defense in the league, the Jaguars found gaps in the Bills' secondary.

Specifically, Jacksonville's Parker Washington had 107 receiving yards and a touchdown despite not catching a ball until the last seconds of the first half.

The Bills are no strangers to dealing with injuries this season, as at some point, they have had more than 15 active players placed on the weekly injury report. 

The clear takeaway is that despite what seems like a never-ending list of injuries, the Bills have overcome adversity, proving time and time again that they can still win big games.

A lack of a consistent wide receiver threat

As mentioned, the Bills are now without possibly three wide receivers for their game on Saturday. Curtis Samuel could be back, but he's barely been a factor when healthy this year.

The Bills' leading receiver is Khalil Shakir this season with 719 yards, followed by tight end Dalton Kincaid with 523 yards. Kincaid led the team with five receiving touchdowns in 2025.

These figures pale in comparison to the leading pass-catchers on other teams who have reached the postseason.

While the lack of a true No. 1 WR speaks to Allen's ability to drag this offense as far as he has, it also begs the question: Who is going to step up vs. the Broncos?

All flaws considered, can they still win the Super Bowl?

There are three factors which could help Buffalo win it all:

Their superb and somewhat underrated defense

The Bills' run defense is questionable, but they have arguably the best pass defense in the league. They've given up the fewest yards at 2894 and conceded only 19 touchdowns. They have 13 interceptions and have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, tied with the Jaguars at 6.2. 

The unstoppable rushing attack led by Cook and Allen

Cook has been one of the best offensive players of the season. He led the league in the regular season in rushing yards, tied for the fifth most rushing touchdowns, had the fifth most 20+ yard rushes, and the third most 40+ yard rushes.

When compared to the other running backs remaining in the playoffs, there are very few who have consistently produced on the same level.

Everything else Allen brings to the table

The main differentiator between the Bills and other teams is Allen, of course. Despite only throwing for 3668 yards and 25 touchdowns - his lowest in both categories since 2019 - he's had the most efficient season of his career. 

He's completed 69.4% of passes and has a quarterback rating of 102.2. On top of this, he's once again proved how much of a dual threat he can be, rushing for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns. 

But most importantly, of the four quarterbacks left in the AFC, Allen has the most playoff experience, has won the most playoff games, and he's the only one to make it past the divisional round.

When the pressure is on, he knows how to win big games. The same cannot be said about C.J Stroud, Bo Nix or Drake Maye yet.

Can they overcome Denver in the Divisional Round?

Buffalo heads into Denver in the Divisional Round to take on the AFC first-seed Broncos, led by sophomore Bo Nix, who has led the Broncos to consecutive playoff appearances after an eight-year drought. 

It was the Bills, coincidentally, who eliminated the Broncos last season in the Wildcard round, 31-7, sending Sean Payton and his team home at the earliest possible point. But McDermott and Co. are acutely aware that the 2025/26 version of Denver is a very different proposition.

This season, the Broncos have ranked: 

• 2nd in yards allowed per game - 278.2 yds/g
• 3rd in points allowed per game - 18.3 ppg
• 1st in Sacks - 68 
• Tied 11th for Interceptions - 10 

Unless Denver can take advantage of Buffalo's porous run defense, the difference maker will be Allen, and in the 29-year-old, the Bills have a sizeable advantage.

For that reason, and despite the seemingly insurmountable task of beating the dominant Denver defense, we cannot count out the Bills just yet.

All things considered, perhaps it's time we admit that maybe this is the year Allen takes the city of Buffalo to the promised land.