Tänak on the rise - an outside bet coming good

Estonian Ott Tänak will have the weight of a nation on his shoulders this weekend as the globe-trotting FIA World Rally Championship speeds into Estonia. Tänak now sits third in the standings and eyes a further climb. Let’s talk about his season so far and what he will face this weekend. 

By round four - the Canaries in April, Ott Tänak and Hyundai as a whole were facing an uphill struggle. Big time! The Korean outfit couldn't live with their Japanese rivals Toyota on sheer pace and were staring down the barrel of a difficult season in the Rally1 top-flight.

One podium on the Safari was the only glimmer of hope for Ott. Zoom out though, and what you face in the opening quartet of rounds in the season are four very stand alone, unique events.

Also throw in adjusting to the new Hankook tyres and a car which needed refinement and development to keep pace with Toyota and you have a situation where you find yourself on the backfoot. Once we got to the fifth round, Rally Portugal - a consistent, more familiar set of events were to follow allowing for progress to be made.

The Ott we know and love with his flat-out flair burst him to the forefront, from a top five in the standings to now third with a brace of second places and a win last time out puts him in the perfect position for his homecoming.

Eight-time champion and rival Sébastien Ogier will be missing Estonia as one of his dropped rounds in his part season. Ogier is just three points up the road from the Hyundai driver and barring any silly mistakes, Ott will leapfrog the Frenchman - a huge psychological boost with only Elfyn Evans at the top of the table in front to go.

It gets better for Tänak as Evans continues to lead the championship - he has the honour, or more to the point the disadvantage of opening the road and road sweeping for the rest of the field.

Tänak will be second, nestled just behind. This would be a disadvantage for the rougher southern European rallies - but the fine, fast and sweeping gravel roads of Estonia - road sweeping won't be as big a talking point for those higher up the order as it is in other rallies, and with the surface layer skimmed off the top from only one set of tyre tracks in front - this could be the perfect position to launch an attack for a home victory. 

So the Estonian’s form coming into this rally… When the championship last visited the Baltic nation in 2023, Ott was at the wheel of a M-Sport Ford Puma - a team not as well funded as the two rival automotive giants and a car that needed the maximum extracted from it to be near the sharp end.

Ott would have been in line for a potential podium for the private team - had it not been for an engine change before the event - resulting in a five minute time penalty.

Fast forward two years and a win in Greece is a big monkey off the back this season - his first in 2025. Secondly, Tänak and co-driver Martin Järveoja won a Estonian national rally the other week to acclimate themselves to similar roads, the high-speeds and weather conditions they can expect to see this weekend.

DAZN is going to give another tip this year. We think Ott can do it. A home win doesn’t happen often, but we are going to say it… Tänak to win in front of an adoring home crowd and with it snatching the championship lead in the process. We think the stars are about to align. Let’s see!

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