NFL 2025 playoff picture: Bracket, odds, bubble watch, and the key games in Week 15

We’re down to the final four regular-season games in the 2025 NFL schedule. At this point, the margin for error in the playoff race is razor-thin for most and non-existent for everyone else.

The pressure doesn't relent in Week 15. Several games carry enormous implications for teams hoping to play football deep into January.

Before the chaos kicks off on Thursday Night Football, here’s a look at the current playoff landscape - and the matchups most likely to swing it.

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AFC and NFC playoff bracket ahead of Week 15

AFC

Current AFC playoff seeds

1. Denver Broncos (11-2)

2. New England Patriots (11-2)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4)

7. Houston Texans (8-5)

Current AFC teams on the bubble

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

Current AFC playoff odds

Odds are per Next Gen Stats

Current AFC division standings

AFC breakdown and key Week 15 fixtures

Right now, the AFC runs through Denver, at least on paper. The Broncos are 11-2, sitting in the No. 1 seed on tiebreakers, with the Patriots - the top-ranked team in our latest power rankings - also at 11-2 and glued to their shoulder.

Both clubs are basically already in the postseason, but that top spot - and the first-round bye that comes with it - is what they're really fighting for at this stage.

Denver’s job in Week 15 is pretty simple in theory, but not so simple in practice. They face a talented Packers' side, knowing that a win will remove any doubt of a playoff berth and keep the pressure on New England.

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New England’s path is similar but spicier. A win over Buffalo at home doesn’t just punch their ticket; it locks down the AFC East as well. They can technically back into a spot with a tie and a bit of help, as can Denver, but that's clearly not going to be their aim.

Just behind them, Jacksonville are trying to have it both ways. They’re in charge of the AFC South right now and looking good for January, but there’s still a tiny crack in the door for the No. 1 seed.

Their immediate concern, though, has to be beating the Jets and taking care of the division. Drop that game, and suddenly, Houston could take advantage.

The Texans have stacked five straight wins and sit only a game back from the Jags. If they beat the Cardinals and keep that streak going, they can make the Jags sweat all the way down the stretch.

Over in the AFC North, Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore in Week 14 was enormous. The Steelers now have the inside track and roll into Monday night against the Dolphins, trying to keep the momentum going.

Buffalo are in limbo this weekend. They’re in a strong position for a wild-card spot, so Week 15 doesn’t swing their fate as wildly as some other teams.

There's potential chaos in the other Wild Card spots, with the Chargers taking on the Chiefs in a huge swing contest. If the Chargers win, they keep a firm grip on their playoff spot. If Kansas City stops the rot, the Chiefs' odds are still alive, but at around only 16%, they would need a minor miracle.

It's a brutal weekend for the teams on the edge. The Colts visit the Seahawks, starting a brutal four-game run, with no clear answers at quarterback. Will it be Philip Rivers to the rescue? Perhaps, but not yet. Riley Leonard is reportedly starting this weekend.

And then there are the Ravens, who don’t have much room for error after that Steelers loss. They head to Cincinnati knowing it's make-or-break. Lose, and it's all but over. Win, and that Week 16 clash with the Patriots - flexed into the Sunday night prime time slot this week - becomes as big as it gets.

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NFC

Current NFC playoff seeds

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

7. Chicago Bears (9-4)

Current NFC teams on the bubble

8. Detroit Lions (8-5)

9. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

Current NFC playoff odds

Odds are per Next Gen Stats

Current NFC division standings

NFC breakdown and key Week 15 fixtures

The NFC playoff picture is going to be so much fun to follow over the next four weeks.

The Rams still hold onto the top seed, but it’s hardly a commanding spot, because Seattle aren't far behind.

Week 15 could tip everything over. The Rams host the Lions in a matchup that means very different things to each side: L.A. can lock in their January plans, while Detroit are fighting to keep theirs alive.

Seattle host the Colts, which looks manageable considering Indy's recent struggles. With that said, nothing about this time of year is ever simple.

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The Packers head into Denver trying to protect their new lead in the NFC North, while Chicago host Cleveland, needing to stay close enough to make next week’s Green Bay rematch matter.

If the Bears win and Green Bay stumbles, that Week 16 meeting suddenly becomes enormous. In fact, it's going to be big either way.

Detroit’s path is even bumpier. They have the Rams this weekend, the Steelers in Week 16, before facing the Bears in the final regular-season game. One slip and they’re done; one upset and they’re right back in it. We're about to really find out what Dan Campbell's side is made of.

• Read next | Week 15 Power Rankings: Patriots stand pat; Bills, Packers rise; Eagles slide

In the NFC South, Tampa Bay are somehow still out in front despite a rough month, but Carolina won’t go away. The two teams meet twice before the season ends, and those games will probably decide the division.

And then there’s Dallas. Yes, they’re still alive on paper. But their chances depend on Philadelphia falling apart in a way rarely seen in NFL history. There’s a sliver of hope for Cowboys' fans, but at around 9%, it's very, very unlikely they'll be involved beyond that first week of January.