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Key playoff matchups: Allen vs Broncos at Mile High, Bears’ defense vs. Stafford-led Rams offense
A win this weekend doesn’t just keep your season alive. It also puts you one step from Super Bowl LX, with nothing left but a Championship game between you and history.
The eight teams still standing all have a reason to believe. They also all have flaws that can be exposed. At this stage, there’s no hiding. This is win-or-go-home football, where matchups, not reputations, decide who moves on.
DAZN News’ Gavin Babbitt breaks down the offensive and defensive battles that will shape Divisional Round weekend.
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Buffalo needs the lean on the ground game vs. Denver
The Bills and Broncos meet in the Divisional round, pitting Josh Allen - perhaps the league's best offensive player and one of the game's best dual-threat talents - against a Denver defense loaded with star quality.
The Buffalo offense likes to establish the running game, and Denver defense take pride in stopping it. The Bills lead the league in rushing yards per game (159.6) and the Broncos are tied for second in fewest yards allowed on the ground (3.9 yards per carry).
James Cook and Josh Allen have more than 1,400 rushing yards after contact this season. They must be physical against the Denver front. Cook is used heavily running to the inside, where Denver defensive tackle Zach Allen and linebacker Justin Strnad occasionally struggle to stop the rush. The Bills' ball carriers can take advantage of this weakness.
With the quality of the Denver pass rush, Allen will be forced to scramble this week. He must succeed against Jonathon Cooper on the right edge. Regardless, linebacker Alex Singleton and safety Talanoa Hufanga are exceptional against the run at the second and third levels. If Allen wins against these two in the open field, Buffalo will extend drives that Denver typically shuts down.
A third of the Bills’ rushing first downs this year came from their quarterback.
Allen faces the league’s best pass rush this week, and the Bills’ offensive line must be ready to go. Nik Bonitto, Cooper and Allen bring pressure from all angles; Bonitto is one of the league’s quickest players to reach the quarterback.
With Denver's tendency to blitz frequently, screen plays to Cook should feature heavily in the Bills' game plan. Cook has an advantage against Singleton in zone coverage, and this play call counters the heavy pressure from the Broncos.
The Denver secondary is excellent at limiting yards after the catch – a factor the Bills rely upon. Bills' receiver Khalil Shakir leads all slot receivers in yards after the catch (320). Denver nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillan is prone to allowing that type of production.
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Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid have the most upside in this matchup. Kincaid plays from the slot and will create quick throws for Allen against the Broncos’ rookie Jahdae Barron.
Keon Coleman and Brandin Cooks have their hands full on the outside. Patrick Surtain is a generational cornerback, and plays both sides of the field. Denver can use him to squeeze Buffalo underneath and take away big plays.
Neither Surtain nor safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones allow reception rates higher than 60% over the top. For this reason, Allen may find more success throwing short and intermediate routes.
The Bills need a fearless performance from Allen this week. Buffalo was excellent in the red zone and on third down this year – and there is no margin for error in those spots against Denver's D.
The Broncos’ defense has the advantanges in this matchup, and with sound execution and a complementary offense, Denver should advance.
Now or never for Bears defense vs. Stafford
The Rams are road favourites against the Bears in the Divisional round. Chicago’s defense struggled this season and needs its absolute best to slow down Sean McVay’s offensive scheme led by Matthew Stafford.
The veteran quarterback, and his favourite targets Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will see mostly zone coverage from the Bears on Sunday.
Nacua is the Rams’ best instrument for converting first downs. The Bears’ defense must disrupt him in the middle of the field to keep their offense in this game. Nacua has 72 receptions for more than 1,000 yards between the numbers this year.
Effective communication between Bears' cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Nahshon Wright and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is huge in this game. By playing deeper, the group can force Nacua under 10 yards and reduce his chances to run after the catch.
Three of Stafford’s nine picks have come on short routes over the middle. Edmunds is 6-foot-5 and is second among all linebackers with four interceptions this season.
Stafford targets Adams on intermediate routes to the left and over the middle. Tracking Adams off the line of scrimmage is the priority for the Chicago secondary. The veteran is a major threat getting open, but not as much after the catch.
Wright and safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker will combine to cover Adams. When Adams runs out routes on the left, he will isolate Wright and stay underneath Byard and Brisker. More than half of Adams’ receptions have come in these zones, and Wright has allowed 13 yards per catch and eight touchdowns this year.
Kyren Williams is top-10 running back in yards after contact. He has an edge against Bears defensive lineman Gervon Dexter, Austin Booker and Grady Jarrett running to the right. Chicago is a friendly matchup for Williams to set up play action, move the sticks in short yardage and make plays in the red zone.
Inside the 10-yard line, Williams led the NFL in rushing yards and scored 10 touchdowns this season.
The Bears’ defense needs superb play from its linebackers and secondary on Sunday, and concentration is key. Stafford has nearly 1,900 passing yards and 22 touchdowns off the play fake this season.
The Rams can set the tone on the ground, before pivoting to play action. Chicago must pick up these calls quickly, or stops will be hard to find.
