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Is the Week 12 Colts showdown a make-or-break moment for the Kansas City Chiefs and Mahomes?
At 5-5 after a narrow 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves outside the playoff picture for the first time in what feels like an eternity.
Once perennial contenders, Andy Reid’s side now teeters on a precipice – and their upcoming game against a hot Indianapolis Colts team could determine whether this season ends in redemption or disappointment.
Here, we look at what's going wrong, what's at stake, and what the Chiefs must do to fight their way back into NFL playoff contention.
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Kansas City’s mid-season malaise hasn’t flown under the radar. Their defeat in Denver was yet another tight one.
The Chiefs grabbed a fourth-quarter lead when
Travis Kelce scores his 84th career touchdown, the MOST in Chiefs history! 🙌
#NFLonDAZN ▪️ #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/bRFyyJ9zoj— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) November 17, 2025 ">Patrick Mahomes connected with Travis Kelce for a 21-yard touchdown. But Denver answered with a late drive, and Wil Lutz kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired.That loss dropped Kansas City to 5-5 and marked their third defeat by three points or fewer so far.
Where has it all gone wrong?
The on-field inconsistency is glaring. Despite Mahomes continuing to pile up yards – he has over 2,300 passing yards through the season’s first half – the offense is no longer coming through late in crunch time.
In 2024, Kansas City seemed to find a way to win every close game, but this year those late-game plays are slipping away.
And the deep ball, once Mahomes’s signature, has been erratic. He is among the league leaders in completions over 20 air yards, but key misfires and costly red-zone interceptions have plagued his decision-making.
If the offense is unsettled, the defense has regressed, too. There’s a real concern that Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is no longer as unpredictable or pressure-laden as in previous years. The pass rush has taken a step back, and the defense has struggled to close out tight games.
And then there’s the running game, which has been a serious liability. Once a cornerstone of the Chiefs’ balanced attack, it has sputtered all season. The backfield has failed to provide reliable support, forcing Mahomes to carry too much of the offensive load. Without a consistent ground threat, Kansas City’s ability to control the clock and close out games is compromised.
Now they stand at a crossroads. The Colts are surging, making this a dangerous but crucial fixture. A win would not only snap a mini-slump but could instantly reinsert Kansas City into the Wild Card hunt. Lose, and their path back to contention becomes perilously narrow – particularly if they continue to come up short in tight games.
Where do they go from here?
To reclaim their place among the NFL elite, the Chiefs first need to fix the running game. Whether it means tweaking their scheme, opening up more traditional handoffs or rediscovering creative two-back sets, Kansas City must make their ground attack more credible. That would take pressure off Mahomes and give their offense more balance and flexibility.
Speaking of Mahomes, he has to rediscover his deep-ball mojo. Those big plays can still swing momentum, but he must avoid forcing risky throws in high-leverage moments. Reducing turnovers in the red zone will be key if he’s to lead this team out of their tailspin.
On defense, Spagnuolo’s play-calling needs to return to form. The unpredictable blitzes, the situational creativity that once masked Kansas City’s shortcomings – that needs to be brought back. The Chiefs cannot afford to fold in the final minutes the way they have recently.
What's at stake?
If they can address those three areas, there’s still a real chance to claw their way back into the postseason. Seven games may be all that stands between this once-dominant team and a brutal end to their streak of AFC Championship appearances.
The clock is ticking. The Colts aren’t just any opponent; they are a measuring stick. A win would give the Chiefs the momentum they need, but a loss could be the one that officially knocks them off the lofty plateau they once claimed without question.
For Mahomes, Reid, and company, Week 12 could be make-or-break.
