Allen in Foxboro, St. Brown in LA, and Herbert in Kansas City – the best matchups of Week 15

The margin between winning and losing in the NFL is razor thin. Games in December boil down to specific matchups, and whoever wins them can shape their team’s trajectory ahead of the postseason. 

DAZN News’ Gavin Babbitt dives into some of the NFL’s best matchups in Week 15 below. 

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Josh Allen (QB, BUF) vs. Patriots Defense 

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There is no player in the NFL more valuable to his team's offense than Josh Allen. The Bills are chasing the Patriots in the AFC East, and Allen will be tested by the New England defense this week. 

The best way to attack the Patriots is with the passing game. Allen’s throwing efficiency this season may be the best of his career. He has the highest completion rate of his eight seasons (70.1%) and is averaging more than eight yards per attempt. 

The Patriots often play zone coverage, which bodes well for Allen. The majority of his throwing production has come against zone this year, particularly through Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. 

Kincaid plays more on the left when lining up on the offensive line. On those plays, Kincaid has a favorable matchup against linebacker Robert Spillane. Allen can target Shakir from the slot against Marcus Jones. Shakir is Allen’s go-to option to convert first downs and, Jones has allowed six touchdowns this season as the nearest defender in coverage. 

The Patriots play with a light box at the second-highest rate in the NFL. With more defenders in coverage, Allen will have opportunities to run. The reigning MVP has more than 400 rushing yards on scrambles this year. 

Allen can take advantage of the New England linebackers by throwing if they are intent on preventing scrambles. And when they drop into coverage, he can find chunk gains running to the outside. Double-digit rushing attempts are on the table for Allen with snow in the forecast.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) vs. Rams Secondary 

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Amon-Ra St. Brown is pushing through an ankle injury with the Lions currently out of the NFC playoffs. Detroit must capitalize with its passing game this week as the Rams are excellent defending the run. 

The Rams play a lot of zone coverage. St. Brown has the seventh-most yards against zone (646) among wide receivers this year. With his versatility playing from the slot and on the outside, the Lions can seek out preferred matchups for St. Brown by motioning him into different alignments. 

When Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes plays the right side, he will be paired with safety Kamren Curl. On these downs, Jared Goff must look St. Brown's way on intermediate routes. In zone coverage, Curl allows receptions on nearly 75% of targets, and Forbes concedes 19 yards per catch. Goff’s passer rating targeting St. Brown on the left at intermediate depth is 133.9 this year. 

More than 30% of St. Brown’s receiving yardage this season has come in the middle and less than 10 yards downfield. He is able to beat linebackers consistently in this area. If he succeeds this week, he will force the Rams to play man coverage – a scheme their starting secondary does not play often.

Six of St. Brown’s touchdowns this season have come against man. He will be the Lions’ best option in the red zone. Look for St. Brown to be used out of the slot inside the 20-yard line. Rams nickel cornerback Roger McCreary has only one pass breakup this season. 

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) vs. Chiefs Defense 

Justin Herbert had an excellent outing against the Chiefs in Week 1. He looks to replicate that performance this week – Kansas City is allowing less than 20 points per game.  

The Chiefs will force Herbert to throw this week as he recovers from a broken left hand. Herbert’s production through the air has been down of late. He has only 371 passing yards in his last three games. He needs to return to form with the Chiefs’ ability to stop the run. 

Safety Chamarri Conner handles most of the slot coverage in Kansas City. He has allowed the most total receiving yards and yards after the catch of any NFL safety in zone coverage this season. 

Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen must be the focus of the Chargers’ passing game. Allowing yards after the catch is a weakness of the Chiefs’ defense. McConkey and Allen will have the most after-catch opportunities playing from the slot, and their shorter routes will protect Herbert’s hand. Herbert has more than 1,300 passing yards on short routes this year. 

Scrambles will be hard to come by for Herbert in this game. The Chiefs consistently bring pressure with a pass rush led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. Kansas City does not play with a light box often, so even if Herbert escapes the pocket, he will not have the benefit of extra defenders downfield. 

Scoring opportunities will be at a premium in this game. Herbert has struggled with accuracy over the last month, so efficiency is key this week.